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Every NFL season teams compete in the regular season for the top spots. Many fans think that teams with best regular season success are most likely to make deep playoffs runs. However , every year the team gets upset in the playoffs making it impossible to predict super bowl favorites. While it will probably never be possible to correctly predict every Super Bowl champion, statistics can help us determine whether regular-season success increases a team's chances of postseason success.
To answer this question I have gathered every Playoff team in the last 5 years (70 teams). I Collected data of all 70 teams Regular Season Wins, Playoff Seed, Playoff Wins, And Won SB. Using this data I hope to determine once and for all if regular season success equates to postseason success.
To use the data best I decided to focus on regular season wins and playoff wins. I then compared the two stats and recorded the results. To illustrate the data I made a scatter plot and it further proved my previous findings. The scatter plot showed a positive correlation between Regular season success and playoff success. To prove it even further I used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the strength of the relationship and found a positive 0.41 indicating a moderate positive relationship.
0.41 was a fine result and showed me that there was a positive correlation between regular season postseasons success but there was a problem with my data. That problem was first round byes. First round byes mean teams get to skip a round limiting teams playoff win potential and potentially giving them a harder opponent than they would have to face if they played in the first round. So I decided to reward every first round bye team with an extra playoff win. This got the strength of the relationship up to a 0.53 which indicates a stronger positive relationship than 0.41.
There are of course limitations in the data as it's impossible to correctly predict playoff success as upsets happen all the time.Awarding an extra playoff win to first-round byes is not a perfect solution because there is no guarantee that those teams would have won a Wild Card game if they had been required to play one. This goes to show the chaotic world of the NFL where every team has a theoretical chance making us wonder questions like these.
In conclusion there is a moderate positive relationship between regular season success and playoff success meaning teams that do better in the regular season have a much better chance than less successful teams. Although this study has its limitations and no team is guaranteed to make a deep playoff run, the data suggests that teams with better regular-season records generally have greater playoff success. So, the next time you're filling out your playoff bracket, it's probably a smart idea to pick the higher-seeded team to advance further.
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